Allright, I called this a while back.
Brett Lawrie lead off for the Blue Jays today, going 3 for 5 with a double and 3 runs scored.
The Jays don't have a true leadoff hitter until Anthony Gose is ready to rock in the Majors, which won't be this year. Brett Lawrie is the closest thing to it and will provide something thats been lacking at the top of the order; EXCITEMENT! Yunel and Kelly Johnson are vanilla at the dish and on the base paths, but Brett Lawrie has all the sprinkles and chocolate sauce (my blog just popped up on gay-google searches everywhere).
The OBP needs to go up, no doubt, but I don't think the Jays are going to want to curb Lawrie's aggressiveness much at the dish. I believe it is the natural progression for young hitters to be aggressive first before they can become selectively aggressive, which is where you should be to be a successful hitter for any sustained period of time in the bigs. His style of play is disruptive, and he always puts pressure on the opposing defence to contain him on the base paths. This can lead to rushed, slide step deliveries to Colby Rasmus and Jose Bautista. Any pitcher with a high leg kick is going to be really worried about Brett over there at first, and that can wreak havoc on pitch locations and finish.
So I was listening to Jay's talk after the game and fans as well as Mr. Wilner, his genius self, were saying that this was only on a trial period (Brett and Colby hitting 1-2) and that it wouldn't be a whole season thing or anything. What idiocy. I bet Ricky Henderson hit leadoff as a trial run as well at one point. Duuuh guys. You can bet we will keep seeing these two at the top as long as they are producing at a respectable clip, with this being a permanent fixture by no means out of the question.. I heard lots of callers answering the question of whether Lawrie should be the leadoff man with "Yes, if he performs like tonight". Yeah, I'd take a .600 hitter as a leadoff guy too. Dummies.
Lawrie will hit wherever he is stuck in the lineup, but who knows what this experiment will drag out of him. Maybe he will learn a little patience trying to see a few more pitches. He's not too bad in that regard anyway, he doesn't walk that much but doesn't swing at a ton of balls out of the zone. Stat wise, I would suspect maybe his average will drop slightly but his OBP will go up as will his SB's and certainly runs scored will improve.
Anyway, until Edwin Encarnacion is back, I believe we will see a lot of this formation atop the lineup, and I am excited to see what Lawrie can do with it. From seeing his personality so far in his young career, I believe he will thrive in this role. Let's hope his infectious energy trickles all the way down through the rest of the batting order.
Oh yeah, and Colby Rasmus went 5 for 5 with a dinger and 4 runs scored. Not bad either.
Tuesday, June 5, 2012
Saturday, April 14, 2012
Bullsh*$-pen
Again? Really? What are the relief pitchers eating/drinking/smoking/putting in their rectums that the starters are not?
Santos' struggles have been well covered. Farrell is standing behind his closer, which he should. Early struggles with moving to a new team, new mound, new catchers.... I get it, it can happen. That can explain Santos' playing cricket with his slider out there I guess. And as far as Cordero, who gave up a 2 run shot to Nolan Reimold today to lose the game in the ninth, same deal. Plus being moved into the set up man position maybe doesn't get his blood pumping like it used to. Adjustments to be made there.
I hope that is all it is for those two guys, but I truly wonder. Much was made of Fat Frank Francisco and Long Jon Rauch's struggles here last year. I wrote it off to Francisco being a little washed up and Rauch just being real tall without great stuff, but maybe there is more to it. Both are certainly having early success with the Mets. Let's look at some possibilities...
1) Playing in Toronto.
Maybe guys feel a bit like... who gives a shit. I'm in Canada. I might expect this from veteran US players, but the Franciscos (Frank and Cordero) are Dominican, so I wouldn't have thought it would really be a factor. Maybe the fact that so much attention is paid to the god awful hockey team in this town means that guys who thrive on the spotlight feel unmotivated. Seems a little farfetched, but....
2) Our bullpen coaches suck.
This might be more to the point. If there is any other way to judge a bullpen coach than how the bullpen performs, I'm all ears. Pat Hentgen stepped down last year after our BP (bullpen, not batting practice, although we seem to get those two things confused in the late innings) blew 25 saves for the most in the AL, citing family reasons, but probably would have been fired otherwise. Let the former star player save some face I guess. Now we have another former Jays chucker, Pete Walker, out there getting the reserves ready. The guys that have come in here have been guys that had success elsewhere. Santos was pretty effective as the closer in his gig with Chicago last year, Cordero has been solid for years in Cinci, Oliver had been aging like fine wine in Texas. Geez, Dotel and Rzep left us last year and went on to be crucial cogs for St. Louis' World Series win. For whatever reason, guys in the bullpen definitely seem to underachieve here and maybe it could be as simple as they are not as mentally prepared as they have been in past stints, and that falls squarely on the bullpen coach. Maybe in the offseason next year instead of giving out millions to bring in new parts for a car, we change the driver... lure someone away who has had big league success as a bullpen coach. Don't bring in Juan Guzman. Although that would make me smile.
3)The daunting AL East.
The toughest division in sports. Maybe guys look at the last 18 years, maybe they look at the payrolls, maybe they look at the talent of the other teams and a little voice in the back of their head says "We have no shot at making the playoffs". Once again, you would hope guys making this much money would be above this, but we all know that's not the case.
4) JP is overly focused on the starters.
Arencibia is a young catcher, and a lot of new arms have been rolling through our bp over the past couple of years. And veterans too, not guys that will defer to a catcher's game calling, especially one as green as JP. As a pitcher myself, I can tell you that familiarity with a catcher makes a world of difference. It's frustrating going through 2, 3, 4 signals out there on a regular basis and sometimes it makes you second guess what you want to throw, or even worse, you go with a sign you don't have total faith in. Those pitches have a way of going very far. And even beyond game-calling, you need to know that if you bury your deuce in the dirt (sounds filthy), he's digging it out for you, keeping it in front of him. Maybe JP needs to put in more time with those guys before games, in practices, in spring training, watching video, getting a feel for what each guy wants to do up there. I have actually been very impressed with Arencibia's defence this year, he looks like he has a bit more of a feel for the starters, he's been blocking very well, and he's been gunning down base runners, even when they are getting great jumps. He's throwing from his knees a fair bit, which I think he will find a very successful tactic for him. He's just too tall to pop up super quick, it kills his release time. A slightly slower ball out much quicker is going to get runners more often than the alternative. But anyway, he seems to be off rhythm with the relief staff and that can't help them at all.
So there are a few thoughts on why our bullpen looks like a pigpen over the last couple of years. Honestly, when was the last time we had a steady, solid closer? I know thats a luxury item for contending teams, but boy oh boy it's been awhile. I'm hoping these are just some early jitters from the new guys, and just some poor early luck from guys like Jannsen, but if this year turns out like the last in this regard.... it's time to start digging a little deeper for a solution.
What do my millions of followers think? Is it the players? The coaching staff? Is there beer and fried chicken being consumed out there too, ala BoSox? Holler at your boy.
Ughhhhh. I hate losing to Baltimore....
Santos' struggles have been well covered. Farrell is standing behind his closer, which he should. Early struggles with moving to a new team, new mound, new catchers.... I get it, it can happen. That can explain Santos' playing cricket with his slider out there I guess. And as far as Cordero, who gave up a 2 run shot to Nolan Reimold today to lose the game in the ninth, same deal. Plus being moved into the set up man position maybe doesn't get his blood pumping like it used to. Adjustments to be made there.
I hope that is all it is for those two guys, but I truly wonder. Much was made of Fat Frank Francisco and Long Jon Rauch's struggles here last year. I wrote it off to Francisco being a little washed up and Rauch just being real tall without great stuff, but maybe there is more to it. Both are certainly having early success with the Mets. Let's look at some possibilities...
1) Playing in Toronto.
Maybe guys feel a bit like... who gives a shit. I'm in Canada. I might expect this from veteran US players, but the Franciscos (Frank and Cordero) are Dominican, so I wouldn't have thought it would really be a factor. Maybe the fact that so much attention is paid to the god awful hockey team in this town means that guys who thrive on the spotlight feel unmotivated. Seems a little farfetched, but....
2) Our bullpen coaches suck.
This might be more to the point. If there is any other way to judge a bullpen coach than how the bullpen performs, I'm all ears. Pat Hentgen stepped down last year after our BP (bullpen, not batting practice, although we seem to get those two things confused in the late innings) blew 25 saves for the most in the AL, citing family reasons, but probably would have been fired otherwise. Let the former star player save some face I guess. Now we have another former Jays chucker, Pete Walker, out there getting the reserves ready. The guys that have come in here have been guys that had success elsewhere. Santos was pretty effective as the closer in his gig with Chicago last year, Cordero has been solid for years in Cinci, Oliver had been aging like fine wine in Texas. Geez, Dotel and Rzep left us last year and went on to be crucial cogs for St. Louis' World Series win. For whatever reason, guys in the bullpen definitely seem to underachieve here and maybe it could be as simple as they are not as mentally prepared as they have been in past stints, and that falls squarely on the bullpen coach. Maybe in the offseason next year instead of giving out millions to bring in new parts for a car, we change the driver... lure someone away who has had big league success as a bullpen coach. Don't bring in Juan Guzman. Although that would make me smile.
3)The daunting AL East.
The toughest division in sports. Maybe guys look at the last 18 years, maybe they look at the payrolls, maybe they look at the talent of the other teams and a little voice in the back of their head says "We have no shot at making the playoffs". Once again, you would hope guys making this much money would be above this, but we all know that's not the case.
4) JP is overly focused on the starters.
Arencibia is a young catcher, and a lot of new arms have been rolling through our bp over the past couple of years. And veterans too, not guys that will defer to a catcher's game calling, especially one as green as JP. As a pitcher myself, I can tell you that familiarity with a catcher makes a world of difference. It's frustrating going through 2, 3, 4 signals out there on a regular basis and sometimes it makes you second guess what you want to throw, or even worse, you go with a sign you don't have total faith in. Those pitches have a way of going very far. And even beyond game-calling, you need to know that if you bury your deuce in the dirt (sounds filthy), he's digging it out for you, keeping it in front of him. Maybe JP needs to put in more time with those guys before games, in practices, in spring training, watching video, getting a feel for what each guy wants to do up there. I have actually been very impressed with Arencibia's defence this year, he looks like he has a bit more of a feel for the starters, he's been blocking very well, and he's been gunning down base runners, even when they are getting great jumps. He's throwing from his knees a fair bit, which I think he will find a very successful tactic for him. He's just too tall to pop up super quick, it kills his release time. A slightly slower ball out much quicker is going to get runners more often than the alternative. But anyway, he seems to be off rhythm with the relief staff and that can't help them at all.
So there are a few thoughts on why our bullpen looks like a pigpen over the last couple of years. Honestly, when was the last time we had a steady, solid closer? I know thats a luxury item for contending teams, but boy oh boy it's been awhile. I'm hoping these are just some early jitters from the new guys, and just some poor early luck from guys like Jannsen, but if this year turns out like the last in this regard.... it's time to start digging a little deeper for a solution.
What do my millions of followers think? Is it the players? The coaching staff? Is there beer and fried chicken being consumed out there too, ala BoSox? Holler at your boy.
Ughhhhh. I hate losing to Baltimore....
Thursday, March 1, 2012
Hello again!! Let's do the Lind-y Hop!!
Yes, I am back!
As an explanation of my absence, allow me just to post his photo.
Okay, so you can't be too mad at me for f***ing off for a while, I made a human being.
Yeah yeah, he's rad, pees a lot, poops a lot, eats a lot, best thing that ever happened to me, blah blah blah...
LET'S TALK SOME BASEBALL!!!
I'm not going to get into Spring Training and what I think of the whole team just yet, I just wanted to write something that had been on my mind for a while, and obviously it has to do with the title.... the Lind-y Hop! Here's what that means.
The Blue Jays need to hop on the back of Adam Lind.
What? What about Bautista? Lawrie? Romero? Santos?
Those guys are great players. Lawrie gives me a half-lob. But the Blue Jays are only going to go as far as Lind carries them (or whoever is hitting fourth, but Lind will have to hit his way out of that spot, which I sure as hell hope he doesn't).
The Jays have an interesting strategy at the top of their line up. It's not altogether unique, but in my mind it is short sighted. They want guys with great OBP (Escobar and Johnson) to hit, walk and will their way on to first base in front of Jose Bautista and then sit there so that he actually gets pitches to hit, he can smash some bombs, rope some doubles and cash guys in. This is why Rajai Davis was hitting 9th not leadoff last year. First, his BA is usually fine but he rarely walks, leading to a poor OBP, and secondly they didn't want him getting on, swiping second and then Bautista getting nothing but low breaking balls to look at or spin himself into the ground at. The same can be said for the approach this year as it looks. No real wheels from either Yunel or Kelly (Yunelly?), so it's station to station for the top 3 guys.
Here's why this is flawed:
1-You need to have faith in your clean up hitter. I know most teams are sticking their best hitter at the 3 spot nowadays but you have to believe that, over the long haul, your 4th guy is going to make your opponents pay for not pitching to your 3 guy enough so that they can't automatically walk him unless its pushing across a run.
2- You have to put the pressure on the other teams D. Get guys moving to cover bags, let your 2 guy hit and run, rock some double steals. Maybe the pitcher has the baserunner dancing off first in his head just enough that he rushes his fastball to the plate and it flattens out and becomes BP. And if that means we have guys on 2nd and 3rd with nobody out, or a guy at 2 with one out, and they don't want to pitch to Bautista, then Lind has to make them pay for putting on an extra baserunner.
The only way that Bautista is going to see the fastballs he REMs about is if Lind puts in the mind of managers that he's a bad bad man. Pujols needed Matt Holliday. Bautista needs Adam Lind. The Blue Jays need to not put their whole offensive game plan around one man, even if he does have a sexy latin stubble beard.
Hence, The Lind-y Hop!!
Oh, and AJ Burnett broke his orbital bone bunting in spring training for Pittsburgh. What a dummy.They say it could heal as fast as 7-10 days.... let's see how long he milks this one. Oh boy.
As an explanation of my absence, allow me just to post his photo.
Okay, so you can't be too mad at me for f***ing off for a while, I made a human being.
Yeah yeah, he's rad, pees a lot, poops a lot, eats a lot, best thing that ever happened to me, blah blah blah...
LET'S TALK SOME BASEBALL!!!
I'm not going to get into Spring Training and what I think of the whole team just yet, I just wanted to write something that had been on my mind for a while, and obviously it has to do with the title.... the Lind-y Hop! Here's what that means.
The Blue Jays need to hop on the back of Adam Lind.
What? What about Bautista? Lawrie? Romero? Santos?
Those guys are great players. Lawrie gives me a half-lob. But the Blue Jays are only going to go as far as Lind carries them (or whoever is hitting fourth, but Lind will have to hit his way out of that spot, which I sure as hell hope he doesn't).
The Jays have an interesting strategy at the top of their line up. It's not altogether unique, but in my mind it is short sighted. They want guys with great OBP (Escobar and Johnson) to hit, walk and will their way on to first base in front of Jose Bautista and then sit there so that he actually gets pitches to hit, he can smash some bombs, rope some doubles and cash guys in. This is why Rajai Davis was hitting 9th not leadoff last year. First, his BA is usually fine but he rarely walks, leading to a poor OBP, and secondly they didn't want him getting on, swiping second and then Bautista getting nothing but low breaking balls to look at or spin himself into the ground at. The same can be said for the approach this year as it looks. No real wheels from either Yunel or Kelly (Yunelly?), so it's station to station for the top 3 guys.
Here's why this is flawed:
1-You need to have faith in your clean up hitter. I know most teams are sticking their best hitter at the 3 spot nowadays but you have to believe that, over the long haul, your 4th guy is going to make your opponents pay for not pitching to your 3 guy enough so that they can't automatically walk him unless its pushing across a run.
2- You have to put the pressure on the other teams D. Get guys moving to cover bags, let your 2 guy hit and run, rock some double steals. Maybe the pitcher has the baserunner dancing off first in his head just enough that he rushes his fastball to the plate and it flattens out and becomes BP. And if that means we have guys on 2nd and 3rd with nobody out, or a guy at 2 with one out, and they don't want to pitch to Bautista, then Lind has to make them pay for putting on an extra baserunner.
The only way that Bautista is going to see the fastballs he REMs about is if Lind puts in the mind of managers that he's a bad bad man. Pujols needed Matt Holliday. Bautista needs Adam Lind. The Blue Jays need to not put their whole offensive game plan around one man, even if he does have a sexy latin stubble beard.
Hence, The Lind-y Hop!!
Oh, and AJ Burnett broke his orbital bone bunting in spring training for Pittsburgh. What a dummy.They say it could heal as fast as 7-10 days.... let's see how long he milks this one. Oh boy.
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
J's make A's feel like F'in L'ers
I just so happened to be at the park tonight.
A buddy of mine was in town from VanCity for one more night, and we had spoken about taking in a game, but weren't able to get to anything opening weekend, so it was Tuesday vs. Oakland or bust.
I went to the game with a hint of begrudgedness. Seeing Jo-Jo (pronounced Ho-Ho?) Reyes pitch is not something on my bucket list. His opponent, Brandon McCarthy, doesn't exactly stir my loins either. The A's in general; only worth watching because of their utter beatability. Let's suffice it to say I was not expecting a great game.
Boy was I wrong... what a roller coaster ride.
Here's some quick thoughts on the game and the team:
Yunel Escobar became my dick lips temporary moist maker tonight with his walk-off come from behind game winning home run. What a stud.
Jo-Jo managed to prove that he is completely undeserving of the injury induced opportunity afforded him, without costing the team a winnable game. That's a cheap lesson Farrell, you know a BP arm when you see one, send him packing. His fastball showed a little bit of life, but he doesn't have a single decent complimentary pitch, let alone 2 or 3 to make him a viable starter. He's Purcey-light (who finally won me over today, he was lights out. That 94/95 MPH heater is impressive in person. Plus he mixed in his slider effectively.)
John Rauch is very tall, but not very nasty. Everything about him screams intimidation, but a flat 87 MPH fastball and a run of the mill cutter aren't intimidating anyone. His stat-line today looks allright, but everyone was squaring him up, just like 2 days ago when Span knocked the eventual game winner over the fence, and his defense absolutely bailed him out.
The Jay's have a hell of a defensive team. You probably won't see many of the plays on the highlight reels from tonight, because they didn't necessarily end up as outs, but Yunel made a diving stop to save a run, Snyder made a great throw from left to gun down a guy at 2B (Hill bobbled it), and Rajai tracked down everything in center. Lind actually looked pretty adept over a 1-sack too.
Nix is a nice little acquisition. The guy played hard, had good ABs and played a good 3-bag. I'm happy to have him with the team. Once we are healthy, maybe he can stick around instead of McCoy.
The running game is exciting. The only thing that pops up obviously on the score sheet is Hill's swiped bag, but you can just see how it affects the other team. Hill advanced on an error on a pick off his next time on. Rajai tagged and scored on a foul out just a little behind 3rd base in a great read by Brian Butterfield. This caught the A's by surprise and forced an embarrassing throwing error by Kouzmanoff (his 2nd of the day). And then on the very last pitch of the day that ended up in the Oakland bullpen, I have to believe that Balfour had Davis running 4.4 fourties in his head when he served that fastball up to Yunel. It manifests in so many aspects of the game, and even aside from that, it's just so much more exciting to watch as a fan than station to station baseball. I love it.
Bad teams find a way to lose, and good teams find a way to win.
The Jay's haven't been out of a game so far this year, and today they even did it without Jose Bautista and JP Arencibia.
3-1.
Great start to what looks to be a very exciting season.
A buddy of mine was in town from VanCity for one more night, and we had spoken about taking in a game, but weren't able to get to anything opening weekend, so it was Tuesday vs. Oakland or bust.
I went to the game with a hint of begrudgedness. Seeing Jo-Jo (pronounced Ho-Ho?) Reyes pitch is not something on my bucket list. His opponent, Brandon McCarthy, doesn't exactly stir my loins either. The A's in general; only worth watching because of their utter beatability. Let's suffice it to say I was not expecting a great game.
Boy was I wrong... what a roller coaster ride.
Here's some quick thoughts on the game and the team:
Yunel Escobar became my dick lips temporary moist maker tonight with his walk-off come from behind game winning home run. What a stud.
Jo-Jo managed to prove that he is completely undeserving of the injury induced opportunity afforded him, without costing the team a winnable game. That's a cheap lesson Farrell, you know a BP arm when you see one, send him packing. His fastball showed a little bit of life, but he doesn't have a single decent complimentary pitch, let alone 2 or 3 to make him a viable starter. He's Purcey-light (who finally won me over today, he was lights out. That 94/95 MPH heater is impressive in person. Plus he mixed in his slider effectively.)
John Rauch is very tall, but not very nasty. Everything about him screams intimidation, but a flat 87 MPH fastball and a run of the mill cutter aren't intimidating anyone. His stat-line today looks allright, but everyone was squaring him up, just like 2 days ago when Span knocked the eventual game winner over the fence, and his defense absolutely bailed him out.
The Jay's have a hell of a defensive team. You probably won't see many of the plays on the highlight reels from tonight, because they didn't necessarily end up as outs, but Yunel made a diving stop to save a run, Snyder made a great throw from left to gun down a guy at 2B (Hill bobbled it), and Rajai tracked down everything in center. Lind actually looked pretty adept over a 1-sack too.
Nix is a nice little acquisition. The guy played hard, had good ABs and played a good 3-bag. I'm happy to have him with the team. Once we are healthy, maybe he can stick around instead of McCoy.
The running game is exciting. The only thing that pops up obviously on the score sheet is Hill's swiped bag, but you can just see how it affects the other team. Hill advanced on an error on a pick off his next time on. Rajai tagged and scored on a foul out just a little behind 3rd base in a great read by Brian Butterfield. This caught the A's by surprise and forced an embarrassing throwing error by Kouzmanoff (his 2nd of the day). And then on the very last pitch of the day that ended up in the Oakland bullpen, I have to believe that Balfour had Davis running 4.4 fourties in his head when he served that fastball up to Yunel. It manifests in so many aspects of the game, and even aside from that, it's just so much more exciting to watch as a fan than station to station baseball. I love it.
Bad teams find a way to lose, and good teams find a way to win.
The Jay's haven't been out of a game so far this year, and today they even did it without Jose Bautista and JP Arencibia.
3-1.
Great start to what looks to be a very exciting season.
Friday, February 18, 2011
Bautista signs 4th richest contract in Blue Jay's history
5 years $65 million guaranteed.
After much speculation as to exactly what kind of payday Jose Bautista's monumental 2010 season would garner, we have a concrete answer.
The contract breaks down thusly; $8m for 2011, $14m per for 2012-15 and a $14 million club option for 2016 with a $1m buy out. I thought it might be clever to cover some of this contract in the here and now, load it top heavily and have his contract be less obstructive as time goes on, perhaps freeing up more money when the Jay's are into their targeted competitive point (2013 and beyond, most likely), but apparently the opposite was more beneficial to the Roger's corporation. I'm not an accountant.
So, this contract has the Jay's and Bautista linked until he is 35, potentially 36, which I suppose is a good age to have a contract end (for the Jay's). Usually players look to sign long term contracts around the 32-34 year range when they are at the twilight of their peak, sign for 4-6 years taking them into their late 30's and then, most likely, retire. We won't be overpaying Jose for his knitting years. He'll have to earn another contract at that age.
This seems like a lot of money to me based on the fact that Bautista has only 1 productive MLB campaign under his belt. But then, if he had a longer track record of doing remotely what he had accomplished in 2010, we wouldn't get a sniff at the guy for this amount of money.
So, it's a mutual risk. If he regresses to the 10 bomb hitting Pittsburgh Pirate, we got bamboozled. If he hits 50 dingers for 5 straight years, he's the steal of the century. But neither one of those things is going to happen, quite frankly, with both seeming as unlikely as the other. What the Jays are betting on is that Jose will have a floor of .250, 30 HR, 100 RBI with an OBP of .350, which seems pretty legit. If this is his line for the next 5 years, maybe we overpay slightly with this current contract, but not terribly. Anything above that line and we draw a little smiley face on his pay cheque.
Alex Anthopolous said it well when he explained that you have to bet on someone, and he and his team of scouts were happy to bet on Jose Bautista. They bet on him because of his attitude, his work ethic, his ability to be a bridge between the young spanish speaking players, coming up soon or already there, and the english speaking players, and they bet on him as a leader of the clubhouse.
If you are a Blue Jays fan, now you've been asked to bet on Jose Bautista too.
After much speculation as to exactly what kind of payday Jose Bautista's monumental 2010 season would garner, we have a concrete answer.
The contract breaks down thusly; $8m for 2011, $14m per for 2012-15 and a $14 million club option for 2016 with a $1m buy out. I thought it might be clever to cover some of this contract in the here and now, load it top heavily and have his contract be less obstructive as time goes on, perhaps freeing up more money when the Jay's are into their targeted competitive point (2013 and beyond, most likely), but apparently the opposite was more beneficial to the Roger's corporation. I'm not an accountant.
So, this contract has the Jay's and Bautista linked until he is 35, potentially 36, which I suppose is a good age to have a contract end (for the Jay's). Usually players look to sign long term contracts around the 32-34 year range when they are at the twilight of their peak, sign for 4-6 years taking them into their late 30's and then, most likely, retire. We won't be overpaying Jose for his knitting years. He'll have to earn another contract at that age.
This seems like a lot of money to me based on the fact that Bautista has only 1 productive MLB campaign under his belt. But then, if he had a longer track record of doing remotely what he had accomplished in 2010, we wouldn't get a sniff at the guy for this amount of money.
So, it's a mutual risk. If he regresses to the 10 bomb hitting Pittsburgh Pirate, we got bamboozled. If he hits 50 dingers for 5 straight years, he's the steal of the century. But neither one of those things is going to happen, quite frankly, with both seeming as unlikely as the other. What the Jays are betting on is that Jose will have a floor of .250, 30 HR, 100 RBI with an OBP of .350, which seems pretty legit. If this is his line for the next 5 years, maybe we overpay slightly with this current contract, but not terribly. Anything above that line and we draw a little smiley face on his pay cheque.
Alex Anthopolous said it well when he explained that you have to bet on someone, and he and his team of scouts were happy to bet on Jose Bautista. They bet on him because of his attitude, his work ethic, his ability to be a bridge between the young spanish speaking players, coming up soon or already there, and the english speaking players, and they bet on him as a leader of the clubhouse.
If you are a Blue Jays fan, now you've been asked to bet on Jose Bautista too.
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Jays sign Podsednik; close to deal with Bautista
At a table full of hungry diners, we may well now have cutlery.
The Blue Jays have signed another player of the table-setting variety in speedy Scott Podsednik.
He has signed a $1M minor league contract with an invitation to spring training. This after declining his $2M option with the Dodgers in hopes of finding a better offer. But hey, what american ball player wouldn't pay an extra mil to live in Toronto instead of LA?
At first glimpse, I thought this was a sign that Rivera is on his way out, as has been oft rumored, but there are many other reasons that could be behind this move. Scott's main weapon is his legs, and to have a guy who can come off the bench to pinch run and swipe a bag for you late in a game; thats a luxury.
He can play left or center, he's even played some right should something dire transpire, so he certainly adds a little flexibility. He's also not a bad little hitter, although a quick glimpse at his career stats tells you that his .297 avg last year could easily dip.
Right now, the idea is for him to compete with Corey Patterson and Mike McCoy for a bench spot, which I think he easily takes. Although older than Patterson, he seems to have maintained his bag larceny longevity at a higher clip.
I'm sure he has every expectation of making the club, and if he does not, some other club will be happy to pick him up at $1M for the season. To me it seems like a great, competitive signing with almost zero downside. There is no youngster Pod stands in the way of, and if the right offer rolls around for old man Rivera, we've got another grey-beard perhaps even better suited for the team waiting in the wings.
It sounds like the Jays and Bautista are closing in on a supposed 5-year $65M contract. To me, this seems like too much, although paling in comparison to the monstrously horrid contract of V-dub. Of all of the soon to be free agents, I find Senior Jose's to be the most perplexing. What do you pay a guy who scrapes along in the big leagues until he's 29 and then explodes for the most HRs in team history?? Apparently $13 per.
Now, it's no secret that the Jays have strapped on bit of an eye-patch when divvying out there treasures this year (abstract Pittsburgh Pirates reference? no? allright.). They have something rappers all love, booty to spare. Their competitive target is realistically 2013 and beyond. If they are smart, maybe they make this contract top heavy and pay him $20M a year for the next 2 years and then drop down to the $8.35 range for the next 3. Just a thought.
In any case, I would expect we hear an announcement of a long term deal sometime tomorrow, Friday at the latest.
What do you think he's worth?
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
Young Guns: The Starting Rotation
With the hangover from the Superbowl slowly clearing (both fan-wise and whiskey-not-so-wise), my attention now shifts solely to the baseball season. I will certainly tune in to watch the Canucks win the Stanley Cup (sorry leafs fans, maybe your kids will witness a winning team), but my excitement lies in the provocatively close beginning of the 2011 Show.
Let's talk starters.
The 2011 Blue Jays will be a young team, and nowhere will this be more emphasized than in the starting rotation. At a combined 124 years of age, for an average of 24.8 years old, the Blue Jays will boast the youngest staff of starters in all of baseball (assuming my predictions will come true. They will.). Here's how I believe the rotation will wind up once the competitions in spring training have concluded.
1- Ricky Romero
2- Brandon Morrow
3- Brett Cecil
4- Kyle Drabek
5- Marc Rzepczynski - Don't misspell his name.... it's Marc with a C.
The first 4 spots are all but set in stone, while the 5th spot has a huge array of competitors. Let's break it down.
Ricky Romero will be the leader of the bunch at all of 26 years old and with just 2 years of MLB service. He has the fighter type mentally you want from your ace out there on the hill. Some guys will get tagged for a few runs early, figure they don't have it that day and start wondering what's for dinner. You need your ace to be a bulldog whether it is 1-0 or you are down 0-4, and I believe Ricky has that ability. He needs to show a little more command of his hard sinker this year if he wants to be the truly dominant pitcher he has shown flashes of. Last year, his curveball became his out pitch because batters stopped offering at his devastating change-up. While this did wonders for the consistency of his breaking ball, he needs to address what was happening with his best pitch, the change-up. In my opinion, he must have been tipping the pitch to batters somehow. If he can get that weapon back to it's full potency, he will have no trouble transitioning into a genuine ace.
Morrow, at 26 and with 4 years experience becomes the wily vet. His 2010 began with enough up and downs to make my mom motion sick, but the last stretch of his season, before being shut down on an innings limit, showed what everyone in Seattle and now Toronto had been waiting for. Capped off by his 17 K, 1 h performance against a tough Tampa lineup, Morrow proved that he could be an upper echelon starter in this league for a long time to come. He is the one guy in the rotation able to miss his spots and get away with it due to overpowering stuff. He just needs to stay healthy. Great trade for the Jays.
Brett Cecil lead the team in wins last year with 15. A slightly less flashy, slightly more economical version of Ricky Romero, I see no reason for him not to continue his success. He fits very well in the 3rd spot. Plus the goggles are dead sexy.
While it will be said (by people who are required to say such things) that Kyle Drabek will be competing for a position on the team just like everybody else (blah blah blaaah), that simply isn't the case. Fans are still anxious to find out exactly what we got for our beloved Doctor Halladay, and the face of that trade is now Kyle Drabek. This is the year we will get a full glimpse of the young chucker with the famous dad. No pressure. Unless he literally takes his pants down in spring training and poops on the mound, he is going to have a spot in the starting 5, whether it be as the 4th, or, I believe more strategically, as the 5th starter (more on that strategy later). Drabek features a plus fastball and a very good curveball which will be his bread and butter.
Which leaves one spot up for grabs.
There will be no shortage of competition for this remaining starting gig. The contestants include:
Jesse Litsch. I am sorry, but I just don't ever want to see you on that mound; something opposing batters would never say. Every time he gets out of an inning, I stop holding my breath. Just grab the bats.
Zach Stewart. A very interesting candidate who arguably out-pitched Drabek last year in AAA. This is one of our arms of the future, and we could see him before the year is done, but I see him starting the year in AAA to work on a 3rd pitch to compliment an excellent fastball and slider. That is, if the Jays continue to develop him as a starter. A dark horse.
Scott Richmond. This guy has a great back-story and is impossible not to root for. Aside from that, he also has some pretty nasty stuff including a great 12-6 curve and a hard biting slider which, unfortunately, lacks consistency. And that is the key to why he will miss out on the 5th spot; consistency. He has the ability to go out there and shut a team down for 7 innings and rack up some K's, but he also has the ability to get hit all over the park. The runner up.
And , the victor, Marc Rzepczyinski. I didn't even log on to the Jays website to check the spelling this time. The worst and best thing that Marc has going for him is that he is starkly similar to Romero and Cecil. He throws a few more breaking balls, featuring a slider as well as a curveball. This is a man who lives on the groundball, with all of his pitches having sharp downward movement. He also gave up very few homeruns in minor ball, something that hasn't translated to the bigs for him yet, but should. He will be the steady 5th starter the team is looking for and should round out a strong young rotation that can grow together.
(Note: I have only discussed the few players I believe have an actual chance of winning the job. Several other barfy options such as Jo-Jo Reyes ad Carlos Villanueva will be considered to be in the running as well. In the running like the jamaican bob-sled team...... Cool Runnings. Those guys never had a chance, mon.)
The strategy that I said I would come back to pertains to something the Jays sorely lacked in 2010; VARIETY. Marcum, sinker pitcher, out pitch: change. Romero, sinker pitcher, out pitch: change. Tallet, Cecil, Dana Eveland, pretty much everyone we threw out there last year except Morrow was the same, and even mostly lefties. A team could face us in a 4 game series and literally see 4 pitchers with the exact same approach.
Baseball is a game of timing, and you can imagine how a day after facing Tim Wakefield knuckleballs for 4 at bats, its going to be hard to catch up to a Josh Beckett fastball. Well, conversely, if you faced a lefty throwing 90 and trying to get you out with a changeup yesterday, it can only get easier seeing the same thing today.
The Blue Jays had very little variety to their rotation last year- something that I feel negatively affected Ricky Romero as he ended up slotting into the 3rd spot in the rotation due to timing of starts at the beginning of the year. He consistently had a copy cat chuck going the day before (Tallet, Cecil) and a mirror image (Marcum) the game prior to that. I would love to see how he fairs with teams facing the hard throwing young righty Drabek the day before. They should offer more different looks this year with Morrow and Drabek splitting up the lefties and Rzep being more about the breaking ball than the change. They just have to decide if they want to have Cecil and Rzep back to back (Drabek as the 5th starter) or Rzep and Romero (Drabek as the 4th starter).
As I said, this group projects to be the youngest in baseball, and no doubt, there will be growing pains. If Rzep, and to a lesser degree Drabek, doesn't fair well out of the gates, he has a myriad of replacements waiting in the wings, including all the guys listed above and Dustin MacGowan (remember him?), should he ever find himself healthy.
All in all, I find this an exciting time for Blue Jays pitchers. We have no over paid stop gap options preventing our young'uns from developing. To compete in this wildly unfair division, we have to adopt an approach akin to what the Rays have done, and that means sticking with our young talent and hoping allllllllll those scouts were right. With any luck, our pitching staff and young position players should reach their peaks at around the same time and give us a ball club that can compete for years to come.
Agree? Disagree? Care to quote odds on Kyle Drabek placing his stool on the Dunedin rubber? Join the blog and post your comment below.
Let's talk starters.
The 2011 Blue Jays will be a young team, and nowhere will this be more emphasized than in the starting rotation. At a combined 124 years of age, for an average of 24.8 years old, the Blue Jays will boast the youngest staff of starters in all of baseball (assuming my predictions will come true. They will.). Here's how I believe the rotation will wind up once the competitions in spring training have concluded.
1- Ricky Romero
2- Brandon Morrow
3- Brett Cecil
4- Kyle Drabek
5- Marc Rzepczynski - Don't misspell his name.... it's Marc with a C.
The first 4 spots are all but set in stone, while the 5th spot has a huge array of competitors. Let's break it down.
Ricky Romero will be the leader of the bunch at all of 26 years old and with just 2 years of MLB service. He has the fighter type mentally you want from your ace out there on the hill. Some guys will get tagged for a few runs early, figure they don't have it that day and start wondering what's for dinner. You need your ace to be a bulldog whether it is 1-0 or you are down 0-4, and I believe Ricky has that ability. He needs to show a little more command of his hard sinker this year if he wants to be the truly dominant pitcher he has shown flashes of. Last year, his curveball became his out pitch because batters stopped offering at his devastating change-up. While this did wonders for the consistency of his breaking ball, he needs to address what was happening with his best pitch, the change-up. In my opinion, he must have been tipping the pitch to batters somehow. If he can get that weapon back to it's full potency, he will have no trouble transitioning into a genuine ace.
Morrow, at 26 and with 4 years experience becomes the wily vet. His 2010 began with enough up and downs to make my mom motion sick, but the last stretch of his season, before being shut down on an innings limit, showed what everyone in Seattle and now Toronto had been waiting for. Capped off by his 17 K, 1 h performance against a tough Tampa lineup, Morrow proved that he could be an upper echelon starter in this league for a long time to come. He is the one guy in the rotation able to miss his spots and get away with it due to overpowering stuff. He just needs to stay healthy. Great trade for the Jays.
Brett Cecil lead the team in wins last year with 15. A slightly less flashy, slightly more economical version of Ricky Romero, I see no reason for him not to continue his success. He fits very well in the 3rd spot. Plus the goggles are dead sexy.
While it will be said (by people who are required to say such things) that Kyle Drabek will be competing for a position on the team just like everybody else (blah blah blaaah), that simply isn't the case. Fans are still anxious to find out exactly what we got for our beloved Doctor Halladay, and the face of that trade is now Kyle Drabek. This is the year we will get a full glimpse of the young chucker with the famous dad. No pressure. Unless he literally takes his pants down in spring training and poops on the mound, he is going to have a spot in the starting 5, whether it be as the 4th, or, I believe more strategically, as the 5th starter (more on that strategy later). Drabek features a plus fastball and a very good curveball which will be his bread and butter.
Which leaves one spot up for grabs.
There will be no shortage of competition for this remaining starting gig. The contestants include:
Jesse Litsch. I am sorry, but I just don't ever want to see you on that mound; something opposing batters would never say. Every time he gets out of an inning, I stop holding my breath. Just grab the bats.
Zach Stewart. A very interesting candidate who arguably out-pitched Drabek last year in AAA. This is one of our arms of the future, and we could see him before the year is done, but I see him starting the year in AAA to work on a 3rd pitch to compliment an excellent fastball and slider. That is, if the Jays continue to develop him as a starter. A dark horse.
Scott Richmond. This guy has a great back-story and is impossible not to root for. Aside from that, he also has some pretty nasty stuff including a great 12-6 curve and a hard biting slider which, unfortunately, lacks consistency. And that is the key to why he will miss out on the 5th spot; consistency. He has the ability to go out there and shut a team down for 7 innings and rack up some K's, but he also has the ability to get hit all over the park. The runner up.
And , the victor, Marc Rzepczyinski. I didn't even log on to the Jays website to check the spelling this time. The worst and best thing that Marc has going for him is that he is starkly similar to Romero and Cecil. He throws a few more breaking balls, featuring a slider as well as a curveball. This is a man who lives on the groundball, with all of his pitches having sharp downward movement. He also gave up very few homeruns in minor ball, something that hasn't translated to the bigs for him yet, but should. He will be the steady 5th starter the team is looking for and should round out a strong young rotation that can grow together.
(Note: I have only discussed the few players I believe have an actual chance of winning the job. Several other barfy options such as Jo-Jo Reyes ad Carlos Villanueva will be considered to be in the running as well. In the running like the jamaican bob-sled team...... Cool Runnings. Those guys never had a chance, mon.)
The strategy that I said I would come back to pertains to something the Jays sorely lacked in 2010; VARIETY. Marcum, sinker pitcher, out pitch: change. Romero, sinker pitcher, out pitch: change. Tallet, Cecil, Dana Eveland, pretty much everyone we threw out there last year except Morrow was the same, and even mostly lefties. A team could face us in a 4 game series and literally see 4 pitchers with the exact same approach.
Baseball is a game of timing, and you can imagine how a day after facing Tim Wakefield knuckleballs for 4 at bats, its going to be hard to catch up to a Josh Beckett fastball. Well, conversely, if you faced a lefty throwing 90 and trying to get you out with a changeup yesterday, it can only get easier seeing the same thing today.
The Blue Jays had very little variety to their rotation last year- something that I feel negatively affected Ricky Romero as he ended up slotting into the 3rd spot in the rotation due to timing of starts at the beginning of the year. He consistently had a copy cat chuck going the day before (Tallet, Cecil) and a mirror image (Marcum) the game prior to that. I would love to see how he fairs with teams facing the hard throwing young righty Drabek the day before. They should offer more different looks this year with Morrow and Drabek splitting up the lefties and Rzep being more about the breaking ball than the change. They just have to decide if they want to have Cecil and Rzep back to back (Drabek as the 5th starter) or Rzep and Romero (Drabek as the 4th starter).
As I said, this group projects to be the youngest in baseball, and no doubt, there will be growing pains. If Rzep, and to a lesser degree Drabek, doesn't fair well out of the gates, he has a myriad of replacements waiting in the wings, including all the guys listed above and Dustin MacGowan (remember him?), should he ever find himself healthy.
All in all, I find this an exciting time for Blue Jays pitchers. We have no over paid stop gap options preventing our young'uns from developing. To compete in this wildly unfair division, we have to adopt an approach akin to what the Rays have done, and that means sticking with our young talent and hoping allllllllll those scouts were right. With any luck, our pitching staff and young position players should reach their peaks at around the same time and give us a ball club that can compete for years to come.
Agree? Disagree? Care to quote odds on Kyle Drabek placing his stool on the Dunedin rubber? Join the blog and post your comment below.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)