Opening Day Starting Lineup

Finally, a calm in the Antho-storm off-season for me to do what I have been craving to do; SPECULATE!!

There may be a few more minor moves, (Kouzmanoff rumors, bluchhy) but for all intents and purposes, the team is basically set, so now all that's left to be decided is how best to deploy the troops. And I think it might a go... a little something... a like this...

SP-Ricky Romero
C- JP Arencebia
1B- Adam Lind
2B- Aaron Hill
3B- Jose Bautista
SS- Yunel Escobar
LF- Juan Rivera
CF- Rajai Davis
RF- Travis Snider
DH- Edwin Encarnacion

This is easy. There are no great mysteries here. This is how I would march them out there, this is how you would march them out there. This is how John Farrell will march them out there.

If we acquire a 3B before the season starts, he will start at 3B, Bautista can make the move to right field where he actually prefers playing, and have Snider slide over to left. This gives us a much better defensive outfield, and assuming this mystery man is one of the rumored players (Kouz or Figgins), we actually get better D at the hot corner too.

The strength of this defence lies in the middle of the infield with two of the flashier, long ranging middle infielders in all of baseball in Escobar and Hill. I expect to see amazing plays from those two on a regular basis, and  couldn't ask for two smoother sets of hands for turning double plays. Oh yeah, and if one of them misses a game, we have Johnny McDonald. He ain't bad either.

The weakness (potentially... well, probably) will lie with Lind's attempted transition into playing first base. This is an experiment, and while in peewee, this is where you stuck the kid that couldn't throw, the position holds massive implications for team defence and overall success. One dug-out short hopper vs. a ball skipping into foul territory can easily decide a game, and a game can decide a series and series' decide the season. I honestly can't see him being spectacular, but hopefully he picks it up quickly. Another positive is a focus on defence could take his mind of his AB's and let his natural stroke take over again. We need that.

I don't think there will be any debate over who will be the opening day starter, barring injury. Some narrow minded folks will make a case for the upside of Morrow as our supposed ace, and he may well end up with a better statistical season if he can carry some momentum from last year and maintain it, but Romero is the guy. He's the leader of this young staff, hands down, and we will largely live and die with his performance over the next several seasons. I think live. More on the starting rotation and bullpen to come later. Just wanted to set up the opening day battery.

Arencebia will have some growing pains behind the dish, but certainly has the raw physical ability necessary. Learning behind a defensive magician in Molina can't hurt either. He's got a cannon, but blocking might be an issue. Game calling will come with experience and familiarity. Fortunately, he has had the opportunity to catch all the expected starters, except for Morrow, mostly at the AAA level over the past few years. Dig it.

To round out the outfield, and the D entirely, Rajai Davis is a total speedster in CF. He may not take the precise routes that Vernon had a knack for, but will absolutely make up for any slow jumps with blazing speed. I don't think we lose too much there.  Rivera is serviceable, with an above average arm, especially in a left fielder, but below average range.

All in all, I believe the Jays will be a middle of the pack team defensively. Brian Butterfield is as good as they come in an infield instructor, and if his work with Lind pays off in spades they may even be an upper-tier defence.


NOW, what we are ALL anxiously awaiting, the opening day batting order;


1. Rajai Davis  R
2. Yunel Escobar  R
3. Aaron Hill  R
4. Jose Bautista  R
5. Adam Lind  L
6. Juan Rivera  R
7. JP Arencebia  R
8. Edwin Encarnacion  R
9. Travis Snider  L


I do not think this is their best line-up. That is not what I am speculating here. I do, however, believe this is the card Farrell will hand to the umpire before the opening pitch is thrown.

Davis is something the Jays haven't had since Rickey Henderson; a genuine speed threat on the basepaths. Not 1st to 3rd speed like Shannon Stewart and Vernon Wells had; take off flying for 2nd speed. The speed of Davis and the bat control of Yunel Escobar will give John Farrell a plethora of options should our leadoff man gets on. Rajai needs to see more pitches though. A high average is great, but a high OBP is much more important from that top spot.

I know Bautista had a monster, monster season in the 3 hole last year, and he's probably comfortable there, but, c'mon, you hit 54 dingers and you're the cleanup guy. Thats just how that works. Plus we don't really have another option there given Lind's irrational paranoia over the number 4. I suppose Hill could take some hacks there, but he doesn't quite offer the intimidation one would hope for in the heart of a lineup. Hill and Lind could swap 3 and 5 spots, but I like Aaron and his legs at the top of the lineup. I'd rather have him trying to score from first on a Bautista double than Lind.

The rest of the lineup is very interchangeable and I'm sure will be juggled a great deal, depending on who's hot. Rivera could easily slot lower but I figure John Farrell will want a veteran bat sandwiched in between two young sluggers. Someone who won't have the streakiness of an up and coming hitter.

Snider is a power guy, and realistically should be in the middle third of the order. I do see him hitting there later in the season, but for now he fits in at the bottom of the lineup. Encarnacion and he could flip flop periodically. Neither one is your typical 9-guy, but that might not be a terrible thing. I might be inclined to stick Encarnacion at the bottom. He basically strikes out or hits a dinger anyway, so you will get a lot of fresh starts at the top of the order. Get that man a pitching machine that throws nothing but sliders. He stinks.

One thing that you notice looking up and down the lineup is an imbalance of right handed hitters. While it would be nice to have more of a balance throughout the lineup to give opposing starters more to think about, it is a better problem to have than too many lefties. There is no such thing as a "righty specialist" that can come in and batters will have an especially hard time with. Hopefully teams will be more hesitant to have a lefty warming up just to face Lind or Snider should they come up in a critical situation.

So, how does the lineup look? Powerful. I don't think there is any doubt about that. Aside from the top 2 in Davis and Escobar, there is not a guy in there that doesn't have 25-30 HR power. The plan this year is to have more people on base when those HRs go flying out of the yard. Whether that happens remains to be seen.

We can definitely expect a little more small ball at the top of the order. I don't know about you, but the thrill of someone taking off for 2nd is something that has been sorely lacking from the overall entertainment value of a Blue Jays game for years.



SO.... how does the lineup look to you? Have a differing opinion of who the opening day starter will be? Have an even lower opinion of Edwin Encarnacion than I do?

Post your opening day lineup in your comments and tell me why I'm wrong, wrong, wrong.

Napoli flipped for RP Francisco

Mr. Anthopolous keeps interrupting me while I am pondering what area of the Jays to cover next. Yesterday I was mulling it over, about to go get all-you can-eat ribs with the wife (not a metaphor), when news dropped that Napoli's stay in the Jay's organization was only a long weekend.

Napoli, you're out, Frankie Francisco, you're in.

This makes a lot of sense to me. I attempted to explain the move to bring in Napoli, and did it damn well, i thought, but ultimately it didn't fully fit with their youth movement, and I expect the keys to home plate to be fully handed over to J.P. Arencebia next season. He's not going to catch 130 games, but he'll be given ample opportunity to make the job his for a long time to come. Napoli goes to an organization that has no obvious need for him, having signed Torrealba for 2 years, but he's the type of guy it's very nice to have on a team. The Blue Jays are not at that place yet.

In Francisco, we get a power arm. Not Jason Frasor power, real power. Frankie's not going to diddle on the corners. He comes mid 90's, and he comes with a good split. Aside from Accardo, which I don't reeaaaally count, we haven't had a relief chuck on the team with a decent split since Henke. Frankie Francisco will not walk home the tying run. He comes at you.

Okay, so we have brought on 3 guys with former experience closing. Some of my fellow Blue Jays enthusiasts have said to me "Great, why the hell are we bringing in so many closers?". Let's be clear. This is not a spring competition for one spot and the other two guys go home. This is gathering powerful arms to replace some of the production we lost in Downs and Gregggg (good god I'm glad he's gone). Hopefully one of the guys does indeed emerge as our closer for the season and we don't have the rotating door we had unsuccessfully for many years here, but what a luxury; to have 3 guys comfortable in pressure late inning situations, especially during the course of a long season when someone invariably gets hurt. And not just on our team. Contending teams (I'm not saying we won't be this year, but... c'mon) are willing to dispense with solid prospects for late inning help should they lose an integral member of their bullpen, be it the closer or setup man. No one wants to step into the playoffs with a glaring gap late in games.

I have a feeling it will be Francisco coming in for the ninth. Dotel strikes me as more of a setup guy in this juncture of his career, but there is something to be said for experience, and he could certainly step in if need be. And don't count out Rauch: He's 6'11. 290 lbs. That's large. I'm not feeling particularly comfortable in the batter's box staring up at a mountain.

Also, it's not at all as if these guys are purebred closers who will be unfamiliar with the 7th and 8th innings. Francisco only had one real season in Texas with the closer's stamp while Rauch has spread his saves around and Dotel has yo-yoed in and out of that role his whole career.

Francisco also has been very tough on Lefties throughout his career (.214 BAA), something that cannot be boasted of Rauch and even less of Dotel, who last year had a BAA of .301 vs. lefties (ewww). This is even more important given the fact that the Jays do not have any real shut down lefties on the team since the departure of Downs.

Plus they free up another $2 or $3 million dollars, depending on where Napoli lands with his arbitration. And Francisco is another one year contract guy, so they could be looking at compensation picks if he performs well and then takes his show elsewhere. Mind you that was true of Napoli too, but he was probably not going to be getting everyday playing time to build up the numbers required to be a class A or B free agent.


OKAY, so...... how do you feel if you're down 2 runs vs. the Jays going into the 7th or 8th inning? I'm not really looking forward to seeing ANY of these guys, let alone the impossible to lift Shawn Camp and the streaky Jason Frasor, who I'm never confident in, but seems to get it done. Add Casey Jannsen and Villanueva for some long relief and Purcey spraying his 93 mile per hour fastball ALL over the place like a batting cage with a glitch, and I think the Blue Jays will find their bullpen to once again be a strength this year.

And with a starting rotation this young, we might very well need it to be.

No missteps yet Alex A, keep the good work going.

Vernon Wells trade

Vernon Wells has been traded to the Los Angeles Angels for C Mike Napoli and OF Juan Rivera.

For those into nostalgia, this may be a sad day. The face of the franchise has been Vernon Wells slightly chubby cheeks, and chubbier contract, for many years now. Along with Roy Halladay, these two moves have made about two thirds of jerseys worn to Blue Jays games obsolete. Vernon, you had some great years here, and I can't blame you for not turning down the ass-loads of money management decided you were worth, but man am I glad to see your $86 mil sail off into the LA sunset. 

We are not the Yankees, we cannot throw around money like its from Canadian Tire. Every penny has to be spent wisely if we expect to compete in the hardest division in sports. 

Let's break down the trade, first players and position need, and then the most important part of this trade, the financial aspect:

Los Angeles had pursued Crawford and Beltre, and having not landed either (Crawford joining the "I Make It Rain", money tossing, off-season juggernaut Red Sox; Beltre to Texas, poor Michael Young, the least respected All-Star in recent memory. Maybe they can get him to back-catch...) they go for the next rung down in Wells, who had shown flashes of his prior greatness in the 2010 season.

Toronto lost John Buck this offseason and (thankfully, in my unpatriotic opinion) missed out on Russell Martin. They clearly do not want to put too much pressure on JP Arencibia, and would like to have a steady hand back there to split time, and even do the bulk of the catching should he struggle and need more time in AAA to get confidence boosting at bats. So they get Napoli, who offers a similar skill set as Buck (power, steady, not flashy behind the plate), but can also play a little 1B when needed, which gives the Jays all kind of position flexibility with Lind in left, or Encarnacion at 3rd and Bautista in left or right and Lind DHing. Napoli has also proven to be a decent DH, so there's lots of room to play with the lineup. 

Oh yeah, we also get Juan Rivera, who, if kept, will play some left field for us and not strike out very often (never done it more than 59 times in a season). He offers a little bit of pop and a half decent BA, but not much for OBP, as he walks even less frequently than he strikes out. He's a high contact hacker, not much on working counts. A decent enough bottom 3rd of the order type hitter, assuming the Jays don't try and make him more. 

I doubt that Rivera was something the Jays sought after. Juan Rivera does not fit into what they are trying to do. I would say that this was LA counteracting the salary being dumped onto them by Wells and his $23 million next year by passing back $5.25 and a player they no longer had any use for. 

Okay, so, I don't think anyone will argue that the Jays have improved from strictly a talent for talent perspective. But this trade was clearly another trade in the lines of the Rios deal; finding a team that would accept an overly generous contract and being happy with whatever you can get back in return. 

Napoli was set for arbitration with the Angels, with his figure being $6.1 mil and theirs' being $5.3 mil. Rivera, as mentioned, will be making $5.25 this year. Both players are only contracted through the 2011 season and then are free agents. 

SO, if we do the math, assuming Napoli gets his $6.1 mil, the Jays are dumping $23 million next year and taking on $11.35 mil, or a difference of $11.65 million.

There may be some cash going from the Jays to the Angels, both managers are being coy in avoiding the subject, but I feel as though Juan Rivera was included in the deal more like baggage and less like a commodity.

This salary wash frees up the Blue Jays to do many things over the next few year, number one of which is to sign Jose Bautista to a multi-year contract, something to the tune of maybe 4 years for $38 million with some club options and probably some performance bonuses. The guy had an absolute monster season and whether it was an anomaly or the result of a guy with talent finally getting every day at bats in a decent hitting environment, well that remains to be seen. However, if he goes through the arbitration process and plays even close to as well as he did last year, we won't be able to sign him for anywhere near as cheap in 2012, which means probably not at all.

The other benefit that comes of this, and what I suspect Mr. Anthopolous may be quietly up to, is it gives the Blue Jays two more players that do not fit into their long term plans that may allow them to collect consolation draft picks at the end of the year. Dependent on their performance this year, they may fit into Class A, or more likely, Class B type free agents (at least Napoli, I'll be surprised if Rivera plays to that standard, but it could happen). 

The Blue Jays are investing in the future. This off season they have allowed Kevin Gregg, John Buck and Scott Downs to sign with other teams, giving them 4 compensatory draft picks in the upcoming draft. They also signed Miguel Olivo and then bought out his contract for $500,000 and allowed him to sign with Seattle, thus buying them ANOTHER comp. draft pick to bring the total up to 5. 

This is no small consolation. While the odds of a single draft pick panning out and being a good Major League player are small, you have to like the odds a lot better when you pick 6 times in the first and compensatory rounds.

All things considered, I think this was a very wise and very realistic move for the Jays. Center field won't look quite the same, but the future is looking brighter.

Initiation

First, a little about me.

   Beaner is a nick-name I was given very early on in my baseball life. As a pitcher, I never bothered to explain to the opposing team that it had everything to do with my last name and nothing to do with my accuracy. Don't tell that to the 4 guys I hit in  1+ innings in my first game back on the hill as an adult in a men's league. One guy even got it twice. Sorry, bud.

   Baseball is as much a part of me as my fingers and toes. I find myself fantasizing about whiffing guys on outside change-ups during dragging days at work; wondering who is going to get the bulk of the work behind the plate for the Jays during droning conversations with my lovely, lovely wife. I was born in Toronto and, though having lived on the left coast for the better part of the past two decades, one of the only aspects of my life that I have never ever questioned is my loyalty to the Blue Jays. I grew up on Powder Blue success, being a 3rd and 4th grader when Timlin threw out that slippery Otis Nixon trying to bunt his way on and next year when Joe Carter blasted a Mitch Williams slipped-slider over the left field fence, being the last man to touch the ball in both games and cementing his place in the hearts of Canadian fans coast to coast. It still gives me goosebumps. I tuned in for the successive season and the dismantling of the closest thing to a dynasty Jays fans have ever known. And I have been a die-hard during the following years of mostly mediocrity, usually sandwiched between the top running and playoff bound Yankees and Red Sox and the bottom dwelling Orioles and Devil Rays (what's in a name? Apparently a great deal in Tampa. Dropping the Devil was the best move they ever made.)

   Now I have returned to Toronto. Still playing ball. Still rooting as hard as ever. I feel much more attached to the team in a city where Jays hats are a part of the culture and the Skydome ( I still can't bring myself to call it the Roger's Centre, despite all the good the man has done for sports in this country) is marked to be seen from anywhere in town by a giant map pin. 

  But this blog is not about me. This blog is about a team that I have incredibly strong opinions on, just like anything you love so much. We have been through Delgado and Green launching back to back rockets while the rest of the lineup struggles. We have been through Rocket winning Cy Young's and Triple Crowns in his only two years here, while the rest of the rotation was lackluster. We have been through David Wells and Frank Thomas and so many other stop gap players. 

Now it seems as though we have a GM that has a real vision for the future in Alex Anthopolous. The team is young. The team is unpredictable. The team is exciting. So many questions await answers from the 2011 Jays. 

Will the young pitching staff respond to the challenge or buckle under the pressure?

Will Lind and Hill be able to bounce back to their 2009 form? Which of the past two seasons shows their true form?

Who will get those crucial late inning appearances, and can we ever not be on the edge of our seat for a 9th inning when we are up?

What can we expect from Jose Bautista following a monumental season after so many years of being a non-factor in The Show?

These and so many other questions will be discussed on this blog. If you are a TrueBlue, come check it out and tell me what you think