Just a quick rant on new stat systems...

Am I the only one who thinks that a lot of these new stats, to try to determine what a players performance SHOULD have been for the previous years, in an effort to try to predict what they WILL do the following year, are complete and utter horseshit? Seems to me like a bunch of dorks playing baseball video games that don't even know what a baseball feels like came up with these.

I just read a breakdown on Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) that stated that it only factors in stats a pitcher can really control, which are strikeouts, walks (and hit batters) and homeruns. They then go on to say that a pitcher can't really control what happens to balls when they are hit into play, which is a stat called BABIP (batting average on balls hit in play).

WHAT a nonsensical conclusion. If pitchers cannot control what happens on balls into play, how can they control homeruns?

First and foremost, let me say that if there was (and probably is) a stat that factors each teams given overall defensive performance and uses a numerical value to shift the ERA to where it would be on a league average defense, I would be down with it. Not to replace any of the actual stats, but something I would be interested in.

NOW.... ooooooobviously a pitcher can't reeeeeaally control anything beyond throwing strikes or balls. Hitters hit fantastically located pitches out of the ballpark sometimes. Sometimes they watch strike three go right down the can. Sometimes they swing at ball 4 as it bounces 2 feet in front of the plate. But for Jamie Moyer's sake, don't tell me that you can't really control what happens to balls hit into play... by those means batting practice pitchers should have the same effectiveness as Verlander as long as they aren't getting taken yard!

No, no, no, no......... no.

Anyone who has actually played anything beyond t-ball knows its about keeping it off the sweet part of the bat. Velocity, command, movement, change in velocity and pitch sequence are all factors that move the ball an inch up or down, in or out, off the barrel and turn a line drive into a lazy pop fly or easy groundball.

The stats on defense, I can get on board with. There is science there that is easily gathered (by computers).

But pitching, and to a slightly lesser degree, hitting, are too complex to diagnose in such a limited way. Just let the numbers speak for themselves, guys.

yowza... that got me all fired up.


Oh... and MLB made the "fake to third, throw to first" pick-off move illegal. It's a balk now. It was always my favorite to watch 30, 000 people boo the opposing pitcher for a perfectly legal move. The fans felt duped. The fans felt cheated. The fans finally got their way. It's pretty bush league anyway. I'm glad it's gone, it only worked like once a year anyway. GOOD RIDDANCE TO BAD RUBBISH!


Allright. I am thoroughly vented.

Stay tuned for my predictions on the starting batting line-up and defence, coming soon.

Holla!!

Dickey-ing around with the rotation

 So, hey, did you hear? The Jays got R.A. Dickey!

Yeah, yeah, everyone who's not Helen Keller (you know... dead) has heard that at this point, so I'm not going to comment on it very much. What I will say is that while I do not like the isolated deal as far as what we gave up, it sure makes me excited as sheez for 2013. Also, an overlooked aspect of the deal is that we got the Mets to eat Buck's awful contract, which makes Dickey's extension that much more affordable. Hopefully it inspires Josh Johnson to sign an extension with the Jays as well, and also acts as a bit of insurance if he doesn't.

Time to have some fun speculating on the starting rotation and the every day lineup!! I can't believe Gibbons gets paid to do this... what a gig.


The first real question is who is the ace. And it's not an easy one to answer, unless you are brilliant like me. Here is my take:

1. R.A. Dickey

I actually think Josh Johnson is the more talented of the two, and Morrow might actually have the highest upside on the staff, but Dickey gets the nod because of the way the whole rotation shakes out.

Dickey throws his disgusting knuckleball harder than any knuckleballer who has ever knuckleballed. His average velocity on the pitch was around 77 mph last year. He can obviously vary the speed as he deems fit, as it seemed to clock in anywhere from about 70 to 83 mph last season, also with the very occasional Wakefield-esque slow floater peppered in. A few of those harder ones may have been misread sinkers, which R.A. features as his "off-speed" pitch (who says off-speed can't mean faster?) which sits in the low to mid 80's. He also throws a third pitch very seldom; some call it a fork-ball, others a curve, others still a change-up. I haven't seen enough footage of this 1-2% featured pitch to judge for myself (I'll let you know after opening day), but it's obviously something he feels he controls well and can throw to confuse a hitter and buy a strike a few times a game. But the man features the knuck 80% of the time, and will adopt an "if it ain't broke" attitude with it. I'm sure he'd be happy to throw a 100 of em and call it a day if he ends up with the W.

The thing about knuckleballers is it's not just the day they pitch when they are effective; it's the day after as well. The lowly Mets, who sorely lacked a quality second starter last year were 14-6 on the day directly following when Dickey pitched. It's like playing whiffle ball for a day and then back to the real sport.

And to maximize the potency of the morning after glow, you need someone with fast balls, which is why....

2. Josh Johnson

Morrow could make sense here too, but while Johnson won't mind playing second fiddle to the reigning NL Cy Young winner, he would mind playing 3rd or 4th fiddle... to anyone.

Anyway, bottom line is you want a guy coming in throwing hard after guys have been fishing around for that knuckler the day before, and Johnson fits the bill. He should be pumping in that hard 4-seam (92-96 mph) and riding 2-seam fastball (91-94) mph and mixing in a very hard biting slider (85-88 mph) which already has one of the best whiff rates in the bigs, never mind the Dickey assist. Johnson also features a curve ball and a change-up, but both are thrown with a fair bit of velocity as well, frankly too much for the changeup to be as effective as it could be. The guy is coming at you with hard stuff, and thats just works perfectly in this rotation spot.

And then after facing that nasty 6'7, 250 lb bulldog you get....

3. Mark Buehrle


Just to throw another completely different pitcher at our opponents, we next trot out the extremely fast working, pin point accuracy having, any pitch on any count throwing, innings eating machine. Mark Buehrle is as consistent as they come. Ridiculously so. The infield is put on notice on his game days, he's a groundball robot. The guy throws a mid to high 80's 2-seam with lots of sink and run away from righties, a low 80's slider, a low-mid 70's curve and a nasty low 80's changeup, and as mentioned before, you might see any pitch on any count, and they are always down in the zone.

Expect to be back outside the stadium in 2 hours if you go see this guy pitch, he's back on the mound and ready to go before you can take a sip of beer. He fields his position as well as anyone and he picks guys off on the regular. 200 innings and double digit wins are just what you get every year with this guy. He is suuuch a nice piece to have in any rotation and he slides extremely well into our 3 hole, directly in front of.....

4. Brandon Morrow

Yes, this means Ricky goes from ace to 5 hole in just one season, but you have to spread out the lefties. It was a topic I covered in this blog a while back: The Jays, for a few years there, had a multitude of similar starters and it lessens each one's effectiveness any time a team has seen a similar pitcher the day before. This year, the Jays are only a sidewinder short of having the most diversified rotation possible and they are fools if they don't take advantage of it. And I like to think they won't be fools.

So Morrow takes his 97 mph fastball, hard slider, hard curveball and ever improving changeup and slides in right in between the two lefties. Like I said, if not for Johnson, Morrow should be throwing after Dickey, where he would be most dominant, but after Buehrle is no disservice either. This guy is one consistent season away from being a huge star in this league. There are VERY few pitchers in the league who have as dominant pure stuff as this man right here. We will have to see if going down in the rotation loosens him up or bums him out. Which is the same thing that can be said for....

5. Ricky Romero

Ricky put together an amazing season in 2011, going 15-11 with a 2.92 ERA and then followed that up with a 2012 in which i don't think I saw a single outing where he didn't look frustrated with his command, gave up the most runs in baseball and went 9-14 only because of a MASSIVE amount of run support. He easily could have been 5-18. Woof.

So what's the deal with this guy? To me, he looked tired. Reminded me a lot of Cecil out there overthrowing his fastball to try and keep the velocity in the 90's, and in the process, losing command entirely. I also believe that Ricky started tipping his changeup a couple of years ago. Whether it be visible during the delivery, or the way he puts the ball in the glove, hell, maybe he sticks his tongue out a la Babe Ruth's curveball, but hitters seem to be laying off very good changeups that are close to the zone.

Obviously, the biggest reason for this, whether he is tipping his pitch or not, is the accuracy with the fastball. If he is hitting the zone, and especially the corners, with the fastball, hitters will chase the changeup, and then you can see a dominant Ricky Romero who can easily be the best 5 pitcher in all of baseball.

I would love to see an experiment with Ricky next year, wherein he abandons his cutter until he can consistently find the zone to either side with his regular fastball. Somewhere along the way, he lost confidence in that thing, and he needs to get it back. Perhaps the fact that he will not bare the responsibility of trying to be this team's ace will allow him to find that control, even at 89-90 mph, and he can get back to missing bats with the changeup and vastly improved curveball he has shown much more of the last year and a half. Ricky; the best pitch in baseball is strike one, and if no one respects your fastball, you aren't going to be effective in this league.

Unless you are R.A. Dickey and have the nastiest knuckleball in history. That dude doesn't need a fastball.



Okey dokers, that's my take on it.

I would love to see Josh Johnson be the ace of this staff, but it just doesn't break down well for the rest of the rotation, because Dickey would definitely be the 2 guy, and then you either have the lefties back to back or you don't get a really hard thrower going after Dickey and that just seems like a waste to me. Besides, the fans will be clambering to see the guy with the hardware on opening day, and I don't blame them. I'm excited as hell to see that man throw that crazy pitch.

So there you have it. Make sense to you? You have a better idea? Want to make some Dickey jokes? Put it in the comments, homeys. And follow if you dig the article....

And stay tuned for the opening day lineup and batting order.