Saturday, January 22, 2011

Vernon Wells trade

Vernon Wells has been traded to the Los Angeles Angels for C Mike Napoli and OF Juan Rivera.

For those into nostalgia, this may be a sad day. The face of the franchise has been Vernon Wells slightly chubby cheeks, and chubbier contract, for many years now. Along with Roy Halladay, these two moves have made about two thirds of jerseys worn to Blue Jays games obsolete. Vernon, you had some great years here, and I can't blame you for not turning down the ass-loads of money management decided you were worth, but man am I glad to see your $86 mil sail off into the LA sunset. 

We are not the Yankees, we cannot throw around money like its from Canadian Tire. Every penny has to be spent wisely if we expect to compete in the hardest division in sports. 

Let's break down the trade, first players and position need, and then the most important part of this trade, the financial aspect:

Los Angeles had pursued Crawford and Beltre, and having not landed either (Crawford joining the "I Make It Rain", money tossing, off-season juggernaut Red Sox; Beltre to Texas, poor Michael Young, the least respected All-Star in recent memory. Maybe they can get him to back-catch...) they go for the next rung down in Wells, who had shown flashes of his prior greatness in the 2010 season.

Toronto lost John Buck this offseason and (thankfully, in my unpatriotic opinion) missed out on Russell Martin. They clearly do not want to put too much pressure on JP Arencibia, and would like to have a steady hand back there to split time, and even do the bulk of the catching should he struggle and need more time in AAA to get confidence boosting at bats. So they get Napoli, who offers a similar skill set as Buck (power, steady, not flashy behind the plate), but can also play a little 1B when needed, which gives the Jays all kind of position flexibility with Lind in left, or Encarnacion at 3rd and Bautista in left or right and Lind DHing. Napoli has also proven to be a decent DH, so there's lots of room to play with the lineup. 

Oh yeah, we also get Juan Rivera, who, if kept, will play some left field for us and not strike out very often (never done it more than 59 times in a season). He offers a little bit of pop and a half decent BA, but not much for OBP, as he walks even less frequently than he strikes out. He's a high contact hacker, not much on working counts. A decent enough bottom 3rd of the order type hitter, assuming the Jays don't try and make him more. 

I doubt that Rivera was something the Jays sought after. Juan Rivera does not fit into what they are trying to do. I would say that this was LA counteracting the salary being dumped onto them by Wells and his $23 million next year by passing back $5.25 and a player they no longer had any use for. 

Okay, so, I don't think anyone will argue that the Jays have improved from strictly a talent for talent perspective. But this trade was clearly another trade in the lines of the Rios deal; finding a team that would accept an overly generous contract and being happy with whatever you can get back in return. 

Napoli was set for arbitration with the Angels, with his figure being $6.1 mil and theirs' being $5.3 mil. Rivera, as mentioned, will be making $5.25 this year. Both players are only contracted through the 2011 season and then are free agents. 

SO, if we do the math, assuming Napoli gets his $6.1 mil, the Jays are dumping $23 million next year and taking on $11.35 mil, or a difference of $11.65 million.

There may be some cash going from the Jays to the Angels, both managers are being coy in avoiding the subject, but I feel as though Juan Rivera was included in the deal more like baggage and less like a commodity.

This salary wash frees up the Blue Jays to do many things over the next few year, number one of which is to sign Jose Bautista to a multi-year contract, something to the tune of maybe 4 years for $38 million with some club options and probably some performance bonuses. The guy had an absolute monster season and whether it was an anomaly or the result of a guy with talent finally getting every day at bats in a decent hitting environment, well that remains to be seen. However, if he goes through the arbitration process and plays even close to as well as he did last year, we won't be able to sign him for anywhere near as cheap in 2012, which means probably not at all.

The other benefit that comes of this, and what I suspect Mr. Anthopolous may be quietly up to, is it gives the Blue Jays two more players that do not fit into their long term plans that may allow them to collect consolation draft picks at the end of the year. Dependent on their performance this year, they may fit into Class A, or more likely, Class B type free agents (at least Napoli, I'll be surprised if Rivera plays to that standard, but it could happen). 

The Blue Jays are investing in the future. This off season they have allowed Kevin Gregg, John Buck and Scott Downs to sign with other teams, giving them 4 compensatory draft picks in the upcoming draft. They also signed Miguel Olivo and then bought out his contract for $500,000 and allowed him to sign with Seattle, thus buying them ANOTHER comp. draft pick to bring the total up to 5. 

This is no small consolation. While the odds of a single draft pick panning out and being a good Major League player are small, you have to like the odds a lot better when you pick 6 times in the first and compensatory rounds.

All things considered, I think this was a very wise and very realistic move for the Jays. Center field won't look quite the same, but the future is looking brighter.

3 comments:

  1. Well they might not be NY, The jays still play in one of the larger sport markets in North America. Now they are spending like the pirates. Don't see the light at the end of the tunnel I'm sorry. They couldn't have unloaded Wells at the deadline for a team trying to add another bat for some prospects? The offseason started with Rumors of Grienke, and Justin Upton.. and ended with losing more than gaining.

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  2. Teams love to "rent" players at the deadline that have expiring contracts. Nobody is going to give up any prospect that is worth having in your system for an aging, injury prone, vastly overpaid player with 4 years left on his contract without receiving huge amounts of money back. Assuming we are not giving LA any cash to cover his contact, this frees up over $20 million to play with each year for the three years following this one (at $11.65 mil freed cash). The Jays have been in a holding pattern of being competitive, but with no real chance of upending the powerhouses in our division. We have finished in the proximity of .500 almost every year with no 90s in the loss or win column, meaning we pick in the middle of the draft every year, missing out on the Longorias and Strasburgs and Buster Poseys. I want this team to be competitive more than most, but sustainably and with an eye on the playoffs, not the goal of winning 88 games. Would Greinke and Upton make this team a legitimate contender? I don't think so. It's time to get young, its time for growing pains. It will be a tough couple of years, but it will be exciting watching the development of our young talent.

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  3. Yeah, I guess their only hope is to rebuild. But its hard to be optimistic when the Yankees and Red Sox show no signs of changing their big $ strategies, buying their way into the playoffs every year. Though the Rays have shown that it's possible to contend by developing young talent internally.

    The truth is, MLB needs a salary-cap.

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