Am I the only one who thinks that a lot of these new stats, to try to determine what a players performance SHOULD have been for the previous years, in an effort to try to predict what they WILL do the following year, are complete and utter horseshit? Seems to me like a bunch of dorks playing baseball video games that don't even know what a baseball feels like came up with these.
I just read a breakdown on Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) that stated that it only factors in stats a pitcher can really control, which are strikeouts, walks (and hit batters) and homeruns. They then go on to say that a pitcher can't really control what happens to balls when they are hit into play, which is a stat called BABIP (batting average on balls hit in play).
WHAT a nonsensical conclusion. If pitchers cannot control what happens on balls into play, how can they control homeruns?
First and foremost, let me say that if there was (and probably is) a stat that factors each teams given overall defensive performance and uses a numerical value to shift the ERA to where it would be on a league average defense, I would be down with it. Not to replace any of the actual stats, but something I would be interested in.
NOW.... ooooooobviously a pitcher can't reeeeeaally control anything beyond throwing strikes or balls. Hitters hit fantastically located pitches out of the ballpark sometimes. Sometimes they watch strike three go right down the can. Sometimes they swing at ball 4 as it bounces 2 feet in front of the plate. But for Jamie Moyer's sake, don't tell me that you can't really control what happens to balls hit into play... by those means batting practice pitchers should have the same effectiveness as Verlander as long as they aren't getting taken yard!
No, no, no, no......... no.
Anyone who has actually played anything beyond t-ball knows its about keeping it off the sweet part of the bat. Velocity, command, movement, change in velocity and pitch sequence are all factors that move the ball an inch up or down, in or out, off the barrel and turn a line drive into a lazy pop fly or easy groundball.
The stats on defense, I can get on board with. There is science there that is easily gathered (by computers).
But pitching, and to a slightly lesser degree, hitting, are too complex to diagnose in such a limited way. Just let the numbers speak for themselves, guys.
yowza... that got me all fired up.
Oh... and MLB made the "fake to third, throw to first" pick-off move illegal. It's a balk now. It was always my favorite to watch 30, 000 people boo the opposing pitcher for a perfectly legal move. The fans felt duped. The fans felt cheated. The fans finally got their way. It's pretty bush league anyway. I'm glad it's gone, it only worked like once a year anyway. GOOD RIDDANCE TO BAD RUBBISH!
Allright. I am thoroughly vented.
Stay tuned for my predictions on the starting batting line-up and defence, coming soon.
Holla!!
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